Bush administration officials have decided to raise the national terror alert level from yellow to orange, meaning there is an "high risk" of terrorist attack. (ABCNEWS.com)

Threat Level to Rise

After Week of Warnings, ‘Chatter,’ Nation to Go to Condition Orange

Feb. 7

— The government plans to raise the terrorism threat level from "elevated" to "high" today, culminating a week in which there were reports of increased "chatter," a warning that al Qaeda may be gearing up for a new attack and the United States made its case against Iraq.

The decision by the Department of Homeland Security to upgrade the nation's color-coded five-tier terror status from yellow — the third level, signifying elevated — to orange, the fourth level, which means high, reflects the heightened anxiety that has been building all week.

U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge were scheduled to make a formal announcement of the decision later today.

A Department of Justice official told ABCNEWS that there is "specific and credible" evidence of threat, not just an accumulation of many different factors.

Intelligence sources said that concern was also raised by the convergence of three factors: the increased "chatter" among the terror networks, the possible coming conflict with Iraq, and the hajj — the annual pilgrimage to Mecca that entered its most important phase on Thursday.

The threat level was elevated from yellow to orange for two weeks last September to coincide with the first anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. It has remained at yellow since then.

Earlier this week, Homeland Security officials said they had no intention of raising the level, but threat factors are re-evaluated daily.

The increased communication among al Qaeda operatives that has been picked up by the State Department and the CIA has been especially high over the past two months, sources said. The level of activity rivals the so-called chatter heard last September around the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

Al Qaeda No. 1 Threat

FBI officials briefed Congress on Thursday on its latest national threat assessment, which officially comes out next week and is based on an analysis of which terrorist groups the FBI feels may have a presence in the United States, what their activities are, which are likely to take terrorist action and their capabilities.

The FBI concluded that al Qaeda remains the No. 1 threat to the United States, and said it believes that Osama bin Laden's organization still has the capability to carry out attacks domestically and abroad, despite the hundreds of arrests that have been made.

"Al Qaeda is quite likely to attempt a major dramatic operation inside the United States between now and the time war develops in Iraq," ABC analyst and terrorism expert Vince Cannistraro said. "There are clear indications of increased communications among known al Qaeda points, a lot of e-mail traffic between sites that are identified with al Qaeda."

On Wednesday, sources told ABCNEWS that U.S. intelligence officials had picked up a spike in the amount of terrorist communications around the world. The officials were concerned about the possibility of retaliatory terrorist attacks against American interests if war with Iraq breaks out, the sources said.

Also on Wednesday, Secretary of State Colin Powell presented the U.S. case against Iraq to the U.N. Security Council, and on Thursday President Bush made a nationally broadcast speech in which he warned Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein that "the game is over."

Copyright © 2002 ABC News Internet Ventures.