Who Are You Mr. Putin?

Or where Russia is headed

At a press conference during Putin's campaign to consolidate power one western correspondent asked Putin a question: "Who are you, Mr. Putin?" This question has yet to be answered.

The recent arrest of Mr. Khodorkovsky - the only Russian tycoon whoy expressed his political ambitions in favor of non-militarized, western type democracy has shocked the Rule of Law movements in Russia. The freezing of the assets of YUKOS, the major joint venture oil company in Russia amid growing pressure by hardliners is viewed by many analysts as an end of liberalization in Russia. All this has buttressed an alliance of hardliners in the Russian Government who feel strong enough to go on the offensive against the budding free market economy.

Putin's "Rule of Law": Verdict first, trial later.

President Putin insists that the case of YUKOS is legitimate application of the Rule of Law in Russia. But is it?

Mikhail Khodorkovsky is the only pro-western capitalist of significant stature in Russia dedicated to transparent-type of business development with social responsibility. As soon as he becomes real competition to Putin he is suddenly is arrested by masked Special Forces and put behind bars after charges of wrongdoing with Russian oil.

At the same time former Prime Minister, Sergey Kirienko, who was responsible for the disappearance of $4.8 B of IMF money given to Russia in 1998, is still enjoying the favorable relations with Kremlin.

Sergey Kirienko emerged from the obscurity to become Russian prime minister in 1998 for a very short, yet sufficient enough period to lead the country to its most notorious default. Whether or not he can be hold fully responsible for this event, it did not add much to his political record. What he is definitely responsible for is a mysterious disappearance of $4.8 billion provided by the IMF.

Kirienko pushed for this money few days before the default. The money intended for stabilization of Russian currency could not be possibly used for that purpose any more and was never accounted for. Kirienko became a major suspect in this mysterious disappearance of funds and became the subject of investigation by Russian and international authorities.

This investigation was put on hold shortly after Putin was elected Russian president. Kirienko was appointed one of seven regional administrators governing important industrial region of Russia.

Many enterprises of chemical and nuclear industry are located in this region and Mr. Kirienko oversees implementation of our programs there and use of our funds. Mr. Kirienko'shostility to the U.S. and its policies does not improve this risk.

We'll be back?

There are two forces in Russia today: so called "siloviki" - the one is - KGB-FSB people, MVD internal affairs which are destructive and repressive. They are counting on reestablishing of Russia's military geopolitical power.

The others, the western oriented non-military business forces of Russia, were united under Kremlin's Chief of Staff, Voloshin, who resigned immediately after Kremlin's attack on private business started with the arrest of Mr. Khodorkovsky.

The last events utter, that the first ones are making utmost attempts to take Russia back to the strong governmental control. Welcome back to the Russian "command economy"! Though, it could be a bit different, it could be China type. But what it could eventually lead to is the regaining by Russia a big military superpower role. The nostalgic role about which all hardliners are dreaming.

When the Russian Government gets back control of all big business, it first of all, will allow concentrating needed amount of money to redevelop its huge military complex.

It looks like the old KGB apparatus works quite effectively. First, they allowed privatization. They allowed emergence of most qualified managerial layer. They then exacerbated one crises after another, hoping for a backlash against free markets, rule of law and capitalism and the switch to Governmental economy (with reestablishing of military potential) may then be supported by masses.

When we ended Japan military expansion dreams - it was final. The same was with Nazi Germany. With USSR it appears to be quite different.

Where Russia is headed and who indeed is Mr.Putin?